Jerusalem's demographers have released their census projections for the near future for Jerusalem. The Holy City has seen a Jewish population increase of 140% since it was reunified in the Six Day War.

On the "Arab" side, however, the population has increased 257% over the same period, outpacing their Jewish counterparts by 83%. If current trends continue, Jerusalem is in for a huge demographic shift.

The Jerusalem Post reports:

The capital's Arab population has increased at more than twice the rate of its Jewish inhabitants over the last decade, according to a survey released by the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies on Monday. By 2020, if current trends continue, 60 percent of Jerusalem residents will be Jews, while the remaining 40% will be Arabs.

The city's population is currently 720,000, 66% Jews and 34% Arabs.

Its population has increased by 170% from 300,000 since it was reunified in the Six Day War. In the last four decades, the Arab population of Jerusalem has grown by 257% (from 68,000 residents to 245,000) while the number of Jewish inhabitants has increased by 140% (from 200,000 to 475,000), the survey shows.

The Arab growth rate over the last decade was 3-4%, the survey found, more than double that for Jews.

"If these trends continue, we could reach the 60/40 rate by 2020, and by 2035 we could see the same number of Jews and Arabs in the city," senior institute researcher Dr. Miya Hoshen said.

Is there a huge Palestinian influx into Al-Quds driving this population change?

Tens of thousands of Israelis continue to migrate from the city to the suburbs, a trend that began in the 1980s.

...Among the main reasons cited by those who have left the city are better job opportunities and more affordable housing.

Apartments in Jerusalem are going for Manhattan prices. Every time I see a listing in Rehavia going for $1000, $1500, or as much as $4000 per month -- and these are dollars, not shekels -- I think to myself, "how can Israelis afford this?" The average monthly salary of even Israeli "electronic communications" technicians as late as September 2006 was only 18, 468 shekels per month. Even at the Israeli rule-of-thumb rate of four shekels to the dollar, we're talking gross $4,617 per month, and these are the highest paid workers!

And let's remember, Jerusalem is not Tel Aviv. The average salary in Jerusalem is actually 18% less than in Tel Aviv with the average salary in Jerusalem (of all workers) being about (again using the same rule-of-thumb rate) $1800 per month gross.

And let's not forget about employment status: perhaps another reason that the Jerusalem demographic is changing could be the fact that the Arab employment rate is higher than its Jewish counterpart with 76% of Arab households containing employed persons, as opposed to 66% on the Israeli side.

We need to see economic development initiatives increasing exponentially in the Jerusalem area. The residents of Jerusalem need economic empowerment. We need to see a proliferation of things like Startup Jerusalem to draw entrepreneurs and small business. The Jerusalem Development Authority should continue to draw investment and business development to the region.

The poverty rate in Jerusalem has increased 40% since 2000 to the point that 1 in 3 Jerusalem families were living in poverty in 2005. And this is not explained by a simple, curt "oh, they're haredim learning in kollel somewhere."

These ultra-luxury complexes going up in the Holy City are beautiful, and are bringing, baruch Hashem, many American and European Jews who may not have otherwise come. But they're driving out Israeli Jews and no one is replacing them. Moshe Q. Tzibbur simply can't afford to pay 50% or more of his Israeli salary in housing expenses. The Jews leaving are primarily young adults aged 20-34, perhaps newly married religious couples going off to start a new life in affordable Beit Shemesh, or secular people going off to make more money in Tel Aviv. Regardless of their psychographic, the 20-34 age group is always a key group to innovation, driving a city's economy and a city's general vibrance.

I'm sure Jerusalem will miss them.

We see, now, perhaps, some of the preliminary effects of the gentrification of Jerusalem. And it is most ironic that in Jerusalem, the Holy City of all places, there seems to be a dearth of affordable housing.

May G-d save us from a world in which corporate greed and real estate luxe takes over His Holy City as we see in many metropolises around the world. May the Holy City never become an exclusive playground for billionaires. I believe with all my heart that the same Holy City which three times a year made space for all of the Nation of Israel to enter its gates surely can hold under a million Jews in adequate affordable living situations. Should the privilege of living in the Holy City come with a Lower Manhattan pricetag?

Jerusalem can't let this gentrification continue. Economic development and affordable (rent-stabilized perhaps?) housing of some type must be a priority in Jerusalem, and the rest of the world.